Friday, May 19, 2023

2023 Dividend List

The wait is over. Today we will talk about *drumrolls* the 2023 Dividend List. This list has consistently generated the most popular posts on this infosite over the years. I started using Poems' simple dividend screen a few years ago. It allows adjustment for only 8 factors: ROE, ROA, Operating Margin, Dividend Yield, PE, PB, Current Ratio and Debt/Equity. While crude, it worked and we discussed good ideas in the years past (the full lists at the end of this post). This year, I came up with a 8818 4D winning formula to screen and would like to share the results. 

The above shows what 8818 is about. ROE > 8%, Operating Margin > 8% and PE < 18x. Dividend is no longer used as a criteria so it has become a misnomer to say this is a dividend list. But since Poems will always show the dividend yield, we can still see it as a reference and surprisingly, all the stocks featured today pays dividends. Although it doesn't really make any sense today to buy anything for 4% dividend since we get that risk-free buying Singapore T-bills. However, if it is a name with strong growth but still gives 4-5% dividend, then it's a steal. Buy, buy, buy!

For the Singapore market, I have cut off the market cap at SGD100m and we have 77 names. The last name cuts off at market cap of SGD1.5bn and honestly, I have also avoided small caps because the risk of seeing that investment going zero is way too high for me to stomach. I have discussed this point in Lessons Learnt from My 4 Biggest Losses. As such, the screenshot shows the top 30 names, the good blue chips on SGX sorted by market cap. We see the banks, REITs, Thai Beverage, Jardine Cycle and Carriage, Yangzijiang, Property names and Venture, Singapore's answer to Foxconn, albeit in a very small way, led by its founder Wong Ngit Liong. The following shows Venture's share price.

While it does not show the usual compounding graph, we can still see that Venture has created some value in the last 10 years after a long stagnation from the early 2000s to 2016-17. Contract manufacturing is a difficult business and hats off to Mr Wong and his team for being able to reinvent themselves, bringing the share price to $30 at one point. Venture went into niche contract manufacturing for MNCs by providing Singapore's branding for quality, process and timeliness and made a killing there.

But, let's move on from Singapore. In the next screen, I used the same 8818 (i.e. >8% ROE, >8% OPM and <18x PE) for NYSE, Nasdaq and Amex with the market cap cut off at USD100bn. Unfortunately, that is the quantum difference between our Little Red Dot and the World - USD100bn vs SGD100m as the cut-off in market cap. *Sigh* Anyways, the following shows some of the biggest names in the  world today:

I would note that TSMC is the most interesting name but it also comes with the most dangerous risk: China invading Taiwan. If that happens though, everything will be falling apart, so not sure which is worse, owning a diversified portfolio with TSMC or owning a lot of stocks in general that will see 20-30% drawdown if war breaks out. I don't have a good answer and that is why I have also advocated buying physical gold. In the middle of WWIII, all your stocks and money in the bank account may not be worth much, but physical gold will get you food and petrol in your $100k COE car.

The last screen is the same 8818 criteria for LSE listed names. I would highlight that BHP and Unilever which appeared in both the London and US screens are good compounders. The chart for Unilever below shows the nice exponential curve as most compounders' long term share price chart shows. Different from the Venture one right?

Interestingly, we are also seeing many stocks trading below 1x PBR (e.g. HSBC and British American Tobacco) that has good ROEs and not necessarily basket cases. During the growth era from 2010 to 2022, this couldn't happen. Perhaps we are truly in a new value era. Long Live Value!

As usual, here's the past lists:

2020 Dividend List
2019 Dividend List
2018 Dividend List - Part 4
2018 Dividend List - Part 3
2018 Dividend List - Part 2
2018 Dividend List - Part 1
2017 Oct Dividend List - Part 2
2017 Oct Dividend List - Part 1

Huat Ah!

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