Thoughts #35: Private vs Public Investments

Investment ideas can come from everywhere but it is important to understand that public and private investments are as different as apples and oranges. Investment ideas from personal connections, private companies and structured schemes come to us. It is very tempting to put money to work thinking that we are getting good risk reward. But we must be very discerning.

Personal and private investments cannot be compared to what is publicly listed or backed by a reputable government (e.g. US or Singapore) or large institutions. For example, we see a private investment which shows 20% annual return on paper. We cannot say that this is better than buying DBS, which can only generate 10% annual return (of which 4% is dividend).

There are a few important reasons:

• DBS is the largest bank in Singapore and the 25th largest bank in the world. There is very low probability it would actually go bust.
• DBS is publicly listed and its accounts are audited by top accounting firms. It means the numbers are real. The cash on the balance sheet is real.
• DBS is liquid, you can sell any time and take the money out if you need it.

In contrast, for a startup setup by your friend, or even and big private investment led by a Temasek linked company in which you have an angle to participte, none of the above matters. The considerations becomes:

• Can I trust the person executing the investment. What if he calls it a day at his startup or at Temasek, move on to do something else? What happens to the money committed?
• Who audited the numbers? Can I trust the cash was used the way it was intended?
• How long is this amount locked up for? What if I need the money some time in the future.

The answers are complex. For the first question, would almost certainly be dunno. Even if you have 100% trust, shit happens. What if the friend gets hit by a bus. Or the lawyer who did the work ran away with the money? With DBS stock, such risks are all averted.

So in order to make a good decision, we need to apply the right discount, we probably have to calculate the expected return here. So for DBS stock, the expected return is the same as the above because the probability that DBS will go bust is near zero and we can take the money out any time i.e. expected return is 10%pa.

But for the private investment, if the probability of default is not zero. For a Temasek led private investment, it could be 30% default probability. For your friend's startup, it could be 70%. So using those no.s, the expected returns drop to 14%pa and 6%pa respectively. Then we need to think about the liquidity needs. If it is locked for 10 years, then I cannot put like 10-20% of the portfolio or something big, like six figures. Who knows when I need that money?

Hyflux

Case in point, Hyflux. It was publicly listed. Strong links to Singapore government and Singapore Inc. Yet, it went bust. Thousands of convertible bondholders lost their shirts. Equityholders know their risks, we buy equity knowing it might go zero but we get the enjoy the upside, if any. But bondholders have no upside. We bought thinking we can enjoy 6%. Yet, it went to zero. So even listed entities are not foolproof. Shouldn't we ask more questions?

 

Full post on 8percentpa.substack.com

Huat Ah!

Market review: 2024-2025

2023 came and past. There was no recession, the Russian-Ukraine war continued and more conflict happened in other parts of the world. Israel-Hamas. We may have Trump as the most powerful man on the planet facing off three dictators: Putin, Xi and Kim. How fun.

Meanwhile stock markets continue to make new highs (except China). The Nikkei broke past its peak of 39,000, last achieved in 1989. This was the year Taylor Swift, the first billionaire singer who helped Singapore gain more hatred from our neighbours, was born. At 35, her age is also slightly higher than the median and average age of all the humans on planet Earth. 

My point, is that it's been a while since Japan was on investors' mind and just when Nikkei tried to come back, India took centre-stage limelight again with Modi promising more and the India stock market hit all time high as well. Yeah, the world is crazy.

So what should we expect for the rest of 2024 and 2025?

I believe what goes up must come down. Valuations are stretched but not crazy. The last time Nikkei hit 39,000, it was trading at 60x PE. Today it's 16x. The PE for the US market is expensive but not at its most expensive when we look at its history, as exemplified by the famous Case-Shiller PE ratio chart below.

Case Shiller PE 50 Year Chart

The last bubble was with the Nasdaq and it is worth examining at that as well. The Nasdaq was trading at >100x PE back in 2000. While it has way surpassed that peak of c.5,000 at >17,000 today, the PE ratio is c.30x. So, just looking at PE valuations, we can always argue, things are not super crazy. But every bubble is different. It can go way higher and break the previous PE record high. 

This could be generative A.I. sucking in even more money which means the Magnificent Seven (Nvidia, Alphabet/Google, Meta / Facebook, Tesla, Amazon, Microsoft and Apple), the GRANOLAS in Europe (GSK, Roche, ASML, Nestle, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Loreal, LVMH, AstraZeneca, SAP and Sanofi) and the Seven Samurais (Tokyo Electron, Mitsubishi Corp, Toyota, Nintendo, Fast Retailing, Sony and MUFG) continue to go up. While the rest of the market stagnates.

Or things can just collapse should the weakest link break. It could be another Silicon Valley Bank, it could be China, or Tesla. The risks are not being highlighted today but with interest rates this high, by right, investors should be favoring stocks with lower PE or higher earnings yield. Yet, we are seeing the opposite.

As fundamental investors, we always have to be mindful of valuations. I would advocate we look at the specific companies closely and make sure valuations are cheap. We should also keep comparing earnings yield to T bills. If we can get 3-5% on T bills, we must think hard about buying stocks at less than 3% earnings yield or 33x PE. Singapore 6 month T bills are still giving 3.7% and US ones are even higher at 4-5%.

US T bills from Google

As to fundamental analysis, I believe A.I. will change the game. It is still unclear how. One scenario might be that retail investors might be better served, since we can simply ask chatGPT to do the analysis in the near future. Or it might also be the case that no one beats the market anymore. So we just buy the index which is generating return by A.I. investing for us.

Before that future happens though, we have Substack today (mine is 8percentpa.substack.com). I believe Substack is becoming an important growing eco-system for independent writers who could write as well as professional analysts perhaps with the help of chatGPT. Their analysis are in-depth, informative and much better than Youtube videos (e.g. Roaring Kitty). The following would be a list of posts on both new names and names that I follow.

Just a few posts from other Substacks:

https://eaglepointcapital.substack.com/p/verisign-a-capital-light-compounder

https://buybackcapital.substack.com/p/the-issue-no-4-vrsn

https://hightechinvesting.substack.com/p/warner-bros-discovery-stock-catching

https://pricepoint.substack.com/p/price-point-040-lets-take-a-look

https://theartofhittingbombs.substack.com/p/company-deep-dive-no-5-adobe

https://cloud.substack.com/p/the-5-ways-ai-will-transform-creativity

Huat Ah!