The short answer is no, but...
1. In terms of magnitude, yes it's pretty scaring, some markets are close to 70% from the previous peak, China is down 50%, India is down 40%. But the US, where everything started, is down only 28%, and Footsie down 27%. Developed Asia-wise, STI is also quite resilient, down about 36%. Hang Seng down 46%, Japan down 37%. So magnitude wise, maybe 60%-70% done. There may be another 10-15% downside, and things should pacify. Timeline-wise, things started to unfold only last June or so. We hit 1 year anniversary not too long ago. Bear markets don't last 1 yr. Usually 2-3 yrs, so chances are, we see some rebound then returning to downward trend until fundamental gets better.
2. Fundamentals. The saying few mths ago was that the sub-prime market was US$1trn, so we have seen write-downs of US$500bn, another 50% more to go. But now, it is not just about sub-prime isn't it. The whole financial industry is in trouble. And if you look at all these bad stuff, ie mortgages, CDS, CDOs, we are talking about US$3-5trn, or even US$10trn according to mega-bears' estimates which would be 70% of US GDP!?!! So how far are we from the bottom? Man, I have no idea, but we are nowhere near the end. But then again, the whole financial industry is built on confidence, if everyone thinks that the bailout will be successful, then it doesn't really matter if we still have US$ X trn of bad stuff. Bcos the market will look past all this and start pricing in a recovery.
3. The real economy only just started to slow. US GDP dropped two quarters ago but it is still positive. China GDP growth is still 8%, may need it to go to 6% or something. Usually it takes at least 4-6 quarters before GDP growth recovers. The stock market would be 1 or 2 quarters ahead of that bcos it always looks forward. So based on this measure, recovery is at least a few quarters away.
4. We are only at the bottom when nobody is asking whether we are at the bottom. Everybody stops talking about markets. Maybe this blog gets updated once a year. And this blogger writes about restaurants or cars or girls or something totally not related to investment. And none of our friends are in finance bcos those those that wanted to join freaked out, and those that were in finance got fired or their co. blew up. Think Lehman, Washington Mutual, AIG, Northern Rock!
Conclusion: it is not clear yet if this is the bottom, a lot of conflicting info pointing to different outcomes, my guess is that we are not quite there yet. One thing sure is that this uncertainty will continue. So brace yourselves for more volatility in the markets!
1. In terms of magnitude, yes it's pretty scaring, some markets are close to 70% from the previous peak, China is down 50%, India is down 40%. But the US, where everything started, is down only 28%, and Footsie down 27%. Developed Asia-wise, STI is also quite resilient, down about 36%. Hang Seng down 46%, Japan down 37%. So magnitude wise, maybe 60%-70% done. There may be another 10-15% downside, and things should pacify. Timeline-wise, things started to unfold only last June or so. We hit 1 year anniversary not too long ago. Bear markets don't last 1 yr. Usually 2-3 yrs, so chances are, we see some rebound then returning to downward trend until fundamental gets better.
2. Fundamentals. The saying few mths ago was that the sub-prime market was US$1trn, so we have seen write-downs of US$500bn, another 50% more to go. But now, it is not just about sub-prime isn't it. The whole financial industry is in trouble. And if you look at all these bad stuff, ie mortgages, CDS, CDOs, we are talking about US$3-5trn, or even US$10trn according to mega-bears' estimates which would be 70% of US GDP!?!! So how far are we from the bottom? Man, I have no idea, but we are nowhere near the end. But then again, the whole financial industry is built on confidence, if everyone thinks that the bailout will be successful, then it doesn't really matter if we still have US$ X trn of bad stuff. Bcos the market will look past all this and start pricing in a recovery.
3. The real economy only just started to slow. US GDP dropped two quarters ago but it is still positive. China GDP growth is still 8%, may need it to go to 6% or something. Usually it takes at least 4-6 quarters before GDP growth recovers. The stock market would be 1 or 2 quarters ahead of that bcos it always looks forward. So based on this measure, recovery is at least a few quarters away.
4. We are only at the bottom when nobody is asking whether we are at the bottom. Everybody stops talking about markets. Maybe this blog gets updated once a year. And this blogger writes about restaurants or cars or girls or something totally not related to investment. And none of our friends are in finance bcos those those that wanted to join freaked out, and those that were in finance got fired or their co. blew up. Think Lehman, Washington Mutual, AIG, Northern Rock!
Conclusion: it is not clear yet if this is the bottom, a lot of conflicting info pointing to different outcomes, my guess is that we are not quite there yet. One thing sure is that this uncertainty will continue. So brace yourselves for more volatility in the markets!
Yen being a barometer of fear has indicates that fear level has cooled off.
ReplyDeleteSo I will not be surprised to see a bear rally after the bail out plan is approved (if approved).
Then when the weak earnings are announced by the companies, equities will go back down again.
Really surprising to see so many Americans complaining online. Let's see if they will take some concrete action when the bill is passed.
ReplyDeleteWhy will this blog "gets updated once a year. And this blogger writes about restaurants or cars or girls or something totally not related to investment." Isn't it all about value investing and it shouldn't be affected by whether a market is in a bear or bull? Look at Warren Buffet as a good example. Has he stopped his activities once bear market arrived? No...i believe he scope up more bargains. If your mentality is to have little or no activities during a bear market then I think that's not the spirit of value investing and you might consider changing your blog name. No offence :)
ReplyDeleteHihi,
ReplyDeleteApparently the bailout didn't help to pacify the markets. We are seeing more vicious selldown. Today the Indonesian market was shutdown as the circuit breaker kicked in. Nikkei down 9%, Hang Seng down 8%. Welcome to the bear market!
To Mr Anonymous, well it's meant to be a joke, I will keep updating this blog as long as I have free time.
You are exactly right in pointing out that this is the time for value investors to act. I myself am actively looking at things to buy, esp China given its long term outlook should be very glorious.
The million dollar question is, "will it get cheaper?" If so, then we should be waiting, not rushing in yet, even if you think they are cheap enough. Well unless you are Buffett lah. Even so, he still have ammunition if the markets get cheaper, so my guess is he is just playing his first few cards now.
Anyways, it's gonna be an ugly Christmas and 2009 coming up.
To Mr Anonymous,
ReplyDeleteI feel that is just a joke. Peter Lynch also said that when he found himself being unwelcome and leave alone in a party, then they are near the bottom.
I have no idea about where the bottom is, and this is not really important anymore. Because, WALL STREET on SALES!