New Activist Investment Idea!

 This post first appeared on 8percentpa.substack.com

This company might be a giveaway with the sub-title above and loyal followers of this substack. In order to mask it a little, we are not revealing the currency below. This is a European activist stock and the company has to turn things around for share price to rally.

Financials (Dec 26)

• Net Sales: 8bn, OP: 0.8bn, Net Income: 0.4bn
• EBITDA: 0.8bn, Free Cashflow (FCF): 0.4bn
• Dividend: 4.5, Dividend Yield: 3.2%
• Net Cash*: c.5bn, Market Cap: c.7bn

*Net Cash: Cash + 50% of Inventory - Short-term debt - Long-term debt

Financial Ratios

• ROE: 7% (currently 3%), ROA: 5% (currently 1%)
• GPM: 80%, OPM: 5-10% (currently 3%)
• EV/EBITDA: 11.5x, EV/FCF: 14.4
• PER: 18.1x, PBR: 0.7x
• FCF Yield: 5.5%

As mentioned, an activist recently launched a campaign against this stock and tried to get onto the board of directors but was rebuffed. Since then, interested market participants and fellow substackers wrote a lot about this name and we have no shortage of deep research.

1. Background and Business

We have written extensive about Swatch. Please check the link below: 

https://8percentpa.blogspot.com/search/label/Swatch

To reiterate, Swatch is a Swiss luxury watch and jewellery conglomerate that owns the following brands as well as production sites for watch movement manufacturing and retail distribution chains. While most readers would know Swatch, few would associate the company with iconic luxury brands like Omega and Harry Winston. In fact, its billion dollar brands or potential billon dollar brands are Breguet, Blancpain, Glashutte, Longine, Rado, Tissot and needless to say, the top three megabrands: Omega, Harry Winston and Swatch itself.

Here's the investment thesis:

Swatch is an activist play trading as a net net with its cash and inventory almost as big as its market cap. Its second generation founding family needs to turn things around or face more public scrutiny. The turnaround story includes revitalizing its megabrands, improving investor relations and reinvesting in mechanical watch innovation.

Activist Angle

What's new and important in 2025 is that activist Greenwood Investors, owning 0.5% of the company has launched a public campaign against Swatch’s management. In the last AGM held in May, the activist Steven Wood receive 60% of the votes but was blocked by the family to join the board. Sensing potential to change things, other activists are definitely looking at the name.

Management is also under pressure to turn things around since the under-performance has caused its market cap to drop to single digit billions while its peers are 10-30x bigger. Otherwise, someone might privatize them.

Positives

Iconic brands: Swatch owns three megabrands, Omega, Harry Winston and Breguet which could be even bigger should management focus on them. Omega consistent ranked top 3 in the world of watches in terms of volume sold. This is the brand that was worn to the moon and its secured its legacy.

Harry Winston is also consistently rank amongst the top jewellery brands while Breguet is a horological powerhouse founded in 1775 by Abraham-Louis Breguet. The brand's history is essentially a history of watchmaking itself. The founder invented and perfected numerous technologies that are still fundamental to mechanical watches today.

Privatization: With the stock trading at net net (current assets - current liabilities > market cap), the stock is ridiculously cheap for a jewellery / watchmaker and both activists and management knows this. Privatization either by management or third party would see share price popping 20-40% depending on the premium offered.

With that, let’s move on to the risks.

Risks

China: A big part of Swatch’s earnings recovery hinges on China and should business in the Middle Kingdom continue to deteriorate, it would be much more difficult for Swatch to engineer a turnaround. Mitigating factor: Swatch commented that it is seeing early signs of recovery in China and expects good results in 2H2025.

Management: Swatch is currently helmed by the founder’s son and daughter who have little regard for shareholders. The article below revealed their stances well. As such, management might then take it private should it become unreasonably cheap. While investors buying Swatch now would enjoy the pop, ultimately, it’s not great because long-term shareholders are being taken out cheaply.

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/various/activist-takes-on-swatch-maverick-as-omega-empire-falters/89342463

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Prominent Global Activist Stocks

 This post first appeared on 8percentpa.substack.com 

🌎 Shareholder activism is part and parcel of capitalism and modern society today.

🌐 If you are a citizen in a democratic society, you get to vote.

🔖 Analogously, if you are a shareholder, you have a voice and the right to opine on how things should work in your company.

Today, publicly listed stocks have thousands, and for larger companies, millions of shareholders. No individual shareholder can effect big changes. When the board of directors fail in their jobs, all shareholders suffer.

That’s where activists come in.

Activists buy the shares of listed companies and effect changes. Through proposing transformational improvements, putting themselves onto the boards of companies or simply advising management via constructive dialogues behind-closed-doors, activists help their investee companies better strategize and grow.

We discussed some interesting activist names in Japan, where c.40% of listed stocks trade below book and has attracted activist attention globally. But the global activists had been busy for many years.

Warren Buffett acquired Berkshire Hathaway in an activist setting back in 1965. The 1980-2000s saw the rise of shareholder activism in US and then in Europe.

Funds like Cevian, Elliott, Hikibi Path Advisors, JANA Partners, LIM Advisors, Oasis, Pershing Square, Simplex, Starboard Value, Third Point, Trian Partners and ValueAct became very prominent.

Without further ado, here’s the inaugural list of the prominent global names (ex-Japan) in alphabetical order.

• Acadia Healthcare (ACHC US, Market Cap: USD2.4bn, PER: 10.4x, PBR: 0.8x, EV/EBITDA: 6.9x) : Engine Capital public engaged Acadia Healthcare, NASDAQ listed mental health facilities operator, in Sep 2025 with its 3% stake. Engine is asking for pause in capital intensive projects, followed by company overhaul focusing on governance, cost reduction and asset sale. In Oct 2025, Khrom Capital joined the fray, asking Acadia to explore a potential sale of itself.

• Air Products and Chemicals (APD US, Mkt Cap: USD65bn, PER: 22.6x, EV/EBITDA: 15.4x) : APD is one the world’s largest industrial and specialty gas maker alongside Linde PLC, Air Liquide and Nippon Sanso. In 2025, it was targeted by activist Mantle Ridge and then DE Shaw, a quant / activist shop and they succeeded to overhauling the board, ousting the CEO and appointing a few directors onto the board.

• Akzo Nobel (AKZO NL, Market Cap: USD12.1bn, PER: 14.0x, PBR: 2.5x, EV/EBITDA: 9.6x, Dividend Yield 3.3%) : Akzo Nobel, one of the largest paint company, was engaged by Cevian, Europe’s leading activist investor. In Aug 2025, Cevian disclosed a 3% stake in AKZO causing share price to jump. This seemed to be a case of constructive activism with Cevian’s spokesperson publicly stating that they see the long-term potential of AKZO do to better. There is little public info on other engagement agendas, but A.I. believes that Cevian would ask for sharper portfolio focus and better cost discipline at AKZO.

• Autodesk (ADSK US, Market Cap: USD66bn, PER: 29.7x PBR: 24.3x, EV/EBITDA: 22.6x, FCF Yield 2.4%) : Renowned 3D design and engineering software company has been engaged by Starboard Value since 2024. Starboard has argued that Autodesk’s margins were not optimized (GPM 11%!) and corporate governance should be improved. After a public spat, Starboard and Autodesk management are apparently cooperating to improve the numbers.

• Avantor (AVTR US, Mkt Cap: USD8.8bn, PER: 13.3x, EV/EBITDA: 11.1x) : AVTR is one of the largest life science and materials company providing mission critical to products and services to biopharma and healthcare players. In 2025, activist Engine Capital (owns c.3% of shares) engaged the company targeting a possible sale given that share price dropped c.50% as a result of poor execution. Management took the threat seriously and took steps to overhaul the firm.

• Bill Holdings (BILL US, Market Cap: USD5.3bn, PER: 24.4x PBR: 1.4x, EV/EBITDA: 17.3x, FCF Yield 5.9%) : Company which has been providing cloud-based software that simplifies, digitizes, and automates back-office financial operations for small and midsize businesses worldwide finds itself targeted by both Elliott (owns 5%) and Starboard Value (owns 13%). Stock surged c.27% in two weeks. This could be an interesting candidate for the portfolio given it is a strong free cashflow generating SAAS business.

• Bitfarms Ltd (BITF CN, Market Cap: USD1.7bn, PER: -ve PBR: 2.5x, EV/EBITDA: 104.1x) : Canadian listed bitcoin miner was engaged by its larger US competitor Riot Platforms earlier this year. Riot built an initial stake of 12% but was poison-pilled by Bitfarm. It went to the courts, Riot upped its stake to 19% and managed to squeeze in a board member in late September. The endgame could be Riot trying to buy Bitfarm on the cheap. But then, Bitfarms is burning cash. So Riot would need to stop the bleed before forking out more money.

• BP PLC (BP LN, Mkt Cap: USD91bn, PER: 12.1x, EV/EBITDA: 4.7x, Dividend Yield: 7.9%) : Formerly known as British Petroleum, then renamed as Beyond Petroleum, BP is one of the highest profile activist stocks in 2024-2025. Elliott Management bought c.5% of outstanding shares and called for a strategic reset to refocus back on traditional oil and gas. Succumbing to activist pressure, BP’s Chairman resigned and management took concrete steps, including announcing the sale of its U.S. onshore wind business, to shift back toward its core oil and gas portfolio. Share price has also increased from GBP3+ to GBP4.2 as of this writing.

• Charles River Laboratories (CRL US, Mkt Cap: USD8.2bn, PER: 16.5x, PBR: 2.5x, EV/EBITDA: 11.3x, FCF Yield: 5.2%) : Elliott engaged CRL earlier this year and got two directors appointed on CRL’s board. Charles River is a global Contract Research Organization (CRO) for pharmaceutical and biotech companies currently trading at reasonable valuations.

• Coway (021240 KR, Market Cap: USD5.5bn, PER: 12.8x PBR: 2.4x) : Coway is durable goods rental company renting out air purifiers, toilet bidets and mattresses, doing a decent business in Korea until gaming company, Netmarble came along, snapped up 26% and caused some corporate governance issuce. Activist Align Partners then came in and tried to sort things out. Align Partner’s Deck on Coway.

• Cracker Barrel (CBRL US, Market Cap: USD1.4bn, PER: 19.4x PBR: 3.0x, EV/EBITDA: 11.4x, Dividend Yield 1.6%) : This restaurant operator blew up part of the internet in August when management decided to go really woke and change its logo, removing Old Timer from its original logo. Fans and activists both protested. Even the US President said his piece. Long time activist investor in Cracker Barrel, Sardar Biglari wrote a 120 page damning presentation calling for improvement. That said, this was more sensational news than actionable activist idea. Takeaway: depending on the circumstances, straightforward narratives (like trying to be progressive) can still somehow backfire

• CSX (CSX US, Market Cap: USD118bn, PER: 22.1x, PBR: 5.4x, EV/EBITDA: 13.1x, Dividend Yield 1.6%) : CSX, North American railway company transporting coal, agricultural and other finished products is being engaged by Ancora Holdings. The activist has ousted its CEO and is pushing CSX to explore merger options with either BNSF Railway Company (owned by Berkshire Hathaway) or Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC).

• Diageo (DGE LN, DEO US, Mkt Cap: USD62bn, PER: 16.2x, EV/EBITDA : 12.8x, Dividend Yield 3.7%) : The world’s largest spirits and whisky maker continues to languish with both US and China drinking less. While no activist is publicly involved as of Oct 2025, it was recently reported that Terry Smith of Fundsmith sold his stake in Diageo, a stamp of disapproval on the company. Subsequently, CEO Debra Crew resigned, another sign of activist action behind-the-scenes. This newsletter has written a lot about Diageo. Valuations are still very reasonable.

• Disney (DIS US, Mkt Cap: USD207bn, PER: 19.0x, EV/EBITDA: 11.7x) : Disney was targeted by Nelson Peltz of Trian and Blackwells Capital in 2024. Both activists failed to win any board seats although Blackwells’ advice for Disney to digitalize faster and embrace A.I. was sound, even prophetic. Disney’s share price has just been treading water for the last two years.

• Harley-Davidson (HOG US, Mkt Cap: USD3.3bn, PER: 6.6x, EV/EBITDA: 12.2x, Dividend Yield: 2.6%) : The world’s #1 premium motorcycle brand faced off activist H Partners (c.9% shareholder) at this year’s AGM. While H Partners failed to get board seats, their campaign triggered the resignation of CEO and catalyzed management to refocus on strategic priorities. Share price has also started moving.

• Honeywell (HON US, Mkt Cap: USD138bn, PER: 20.2x, EV/EBITDA: 15.3x, Dividend Yield: 2.1%) : Honeywell is a massive industrial conglomerate with core businesses in Aerospace, Building & Industrial Automation and Energy & Sustainability Solutions. In late 2024, Elliott bought a USD5bn stake and publicly urged Honeywell to break up its businesses. This was a major activist win as Elliott partner Marc Steinberg was appointed to Honeywell's Board and Honeywell agreed to breaking up into three distinct, publicly listed companies.

• Kenvue (KVUE US, Mkt Cap: USD40.7bn, PER: 19.8x, EV/EBITDA: 13.7x, Dividend Yield: 3.9%) : Consumer health company spun out from J&J, selling over-the-counter (OTC) medicines, personal care, and wellness products. Multiple activists, including Starboard Value, Third Point and Sachem Head engaged the firm seeking a strategic review including divestment of under-performing business (skincare) and possible full sale of the company.

• Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP US, Market Cap: USD38bn, PER: 13.4x, PBR: 1.5x, EV/EBITDA 11.2x, Dividend Yield: 3.3%) : Activist Starboard Value’s engagement with KDP was made public in mid Oct 2025 after the company announced plans to buy European coffee maker JDE Peet’s for USD18bn, which many believed was overly expensive. The following analysis provides good insights on this development:https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/18/how-starboard-could-build-value-at-keurig-dr-pepper-ahead-of-its-jde-peet-deal-.html

• Lamb Weston (LW US, Market Cap: USD7.9bn, PER: 19.9x PBR: 4.5x, EV/EBITDA: 16.9x, Dividend Yield 2.6%) : Lamb Weston is a global food processing company specializing frozen potato products. In 2025, it was engaged by JANA Partners which owned c.7% of outstanding shares. JANA pushed for major operational and capital improvements, including advocating for a potential sale of the company. In mid 2025, JANA and Lamb agreed that four of its 13 directors would be nominated by the activist.

• Lululemon Athletica (LULU US, Market Cap: USD20.1bn, PER: 13.9x, PBR: 4.6x, EV/EBITDA: 7.7x) : In a rare case of founder-led activism, Lululemon’s founder, Chip Wilson, compared his own company to a “plane crash” with a full page advertisement criticising management on the Wall Street Journal in Oct 2025. On CNBC, he also alluded to working with activist investors to force changes on the board. (Updated Nov 2025)

• Natural Resource Partners (NRP US, Market Cap: USD1.4bn, PER: 9.7x, PBR: 2.3x, EV/EBITDA: 7.8x, FCF Yield 15%, Dividend Yield 2.9%) : This interesting name is being targeted by activist Graystone Capital and other smart investors. Its main business is collecting royalties from the coal and soda ash mines that it owns. NRP is a Master Limited Partnership which for reasons unclear, non-US investors are unable to buy.

• Markel (MKL US, Mkt Cap: USD24.4bn, PER: 19.2x, PBR: 1.4x) : This insurer, once touted potentially as the next Berkshire Hathaway, was targeted by activist JANA Partners (again!) in 2024. JANA argued that Markel had lost its way and might consider selling the business to another bigger insurer. Markel did not fight back publicly, instead took the opportunity to take feedback and review its businesses. It recently announced the sale of its global re-insurer business.

• Medtronic (MDT US, Market Cap: USD118bn, PER: 16.1x PBR: 2.5x, EV/EBITDA: 13.5x, Dividend Yield 3.1%) : Elliott’s involvement in this global medical device giant was announced last month after “constructive dialogue”. It was reported that Elliott’s involvement likely resulted in the board appointments of two independent directors and the spinoff of Medtronic’s diabetes business. Share price reaction was muted though.

• Middleby Corp (MIDD US, 0K1G UK, Market Cap: USD6.7bn, PER: 15.1x, EV/EBITDA: 10.8, PBR: 1.8x) : US commercial food service equipment maker has been engaged by Trian’s ex-CIO Ed Garden. His eponymous fund, Garden Investments holds c.5% stake of Middleby. In Oct 2025, FT announced that Middleby will sell 50% of its kitchen product business to 26North, a new investment vehicle of Apollo’s cofounder Josh Harris. Interestingly, share price has not moved much. (Updated Nov 2025)

• PepsiCo (PEP US, Market Cap: USD210bn, PER: 18.0x PBR: 10.8x, EV/EBITDA: 13.3x, Dividend Yield 3.7%) : Elliott published its manifesto https://elliottletters.com/pepsico/ on PepsiCo articulating its comeback strategies on PepsiCo’s legacy of successes built on its storied glories such as building Frito Lay into the global #1 potato chips brand and successful spinoff of Yum! Brands. PepsiCo is also our portfolio name since 2023.

• Pfizer (PFE US, Mkt Cap: USD143bn, PER: 8.9x, EV/EBITDA: 8.5x, Dividend Yield: 6.8%) : Once the largest pharmaceutical company in the world, Pfizer has dropped to #11 in ranking. Activist Starboard Value acquired a USD1bn stake and called for its board to hold management accountable for the share price underperformance. At the 2025 AGM, Pfizer’s directors were all re-elected. It is unclear what’s Starboard’s next move. Meanwhile, PFE’s share price also didn’t do much. As such, the story is still unfolding…

• Philip 66 (PSX US, Market Cap: USD49.3bn, PER: 14.5x PBR: 1.8x) : Elliott launched a public campaign earlier this year arguing company has under-performed for many years. Company fought back and things culminated into the AGM proxy battle with both sides getting two of their nominated directors voted in. The saga is ongoing. Elliott’s deck: https://www.10xebitda.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Elliott-Management-Phillips-66-Natural-Resources-Elliott-Phillips-Presentation-11-Feb-2025.pdf

• Reckitt (RKT LN, Mkt Cap: USD50bn, PER: 15.2x, EV/EBITDA: 12.7x, Dividend Yield: 3.8%) : Formerly Reckitt Benckiser, this UK consumer and OTC drugmaker with iconic brands such as Dettol, Durex, Nurofen, Vanish, Air Wick, Enfamil (milk) was targeted by multiple activists in 2024. Pressured by them, RKT sold part of its homecare business and is return capital to shareholders. This newsletter has written about Reckitt.

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