tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28086856.post559100191780169161..comments2024-03-20T01:42:13.273+08:00Comments on Eight percent per annum: Value investing in Singapore stocks: Ping Pong, Patience, PsychologyJayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03292158817395898619noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28086856.post-78993615672639629152008-09-14T22:52:00.001+08:002008-09-14T22:52:00.001+08:00Yes at the end of the day, we need to win. ie make...Yes at the end of the day, we need to win. ie make money if not then wat's the point right? But don't give up, the road is very long, IMO, 10 yrs or more. So keep learning and keep trying.<BR/><BR/>That is very true, the odds are determined by the margin of safety to a certain extent. But sometimes also about timing.<BR/><BR/>Interestingly, timing may be crucial in the HSC index. Most bubbles never recover to their previous peak of a long period of time. Which means that it may be cheap enough to buy HSC now. But it may stay cheap for a long time. So if you invest now, the compounded return may not be that great.<BR/><BR/>But at least, you won't lose your capital lah.Jayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03292158817395898619noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28086856.post-14525151728658314142008-09-14T22:52:00.000+08:002008-09-14T22:52:00.000+08:00Yes at the end of the day, we need to win. ie make...Yes at the end of the day, we need to win. ie make money if not then wat's the point right? But don't give up, the road is very long, IMO, 10 yrs or more. So keep learning and keep trying.<BR/><BR/>That is very true, the odds are determined by the margin of safety to a certain extent. But sometimes also about timing.<BR/><BR/>Interestingly, timing may be crucial in the HSC index. Most bubbles never recover to their previous peak of a long period of time. Which means that it may be cheap enough to buy HSC now. But it may stay cheap for a long time. So if you invest now, the compounded return may not be that great.<BR/><BR/>But at least, you won't lose your capital lah.Jayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03292158817395898619noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28086856.post-2399347598619019262008-09-13T17:23:00.000+08:002008-09-13T17:23:00.000+08:00Thanks for the advice on diversification, probably...Thanks for the advice on diversification, probably diversify over a portfolio of undervalued stocks is acceptable to me.^^<BR/><BR/>We will never know the odds, and we do not need to bother. In my humble opinion, part of the odds are due to undervalue and (major) part of it is due to the Mr. Market. I will tend to focus on the first part, although the problem is there is no clear boundary.<BR/><BR/>Probably, Cost averaging will be a good way on HSC.Sechaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01683854748089332401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28086856.post-80108907415902712362008-09-12T18:27:00.000+08:002008-09-12T18:27:00.000+08:00I missed the game, but thanks for the interesting ...I missed the game, but thanks for the interesting analogy!<BR/><BR/>Investment, however is the same as sports, end of the day..you have to win. Maybe not this round but ultimately.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28086856.post-52034039382070448592008-09-12T12:26:00.000+08:002008-09-12T12:26:00.000+08:00I think it is not the usual "either-or" argument. ...I think it is not the usual "either-or" argument. It is right to diversify and it is also right to bet big when your odds are good.<BR/><BR/>So you diversify when your odds are so-so. Nobel prize winners have proven that this is as close as you can get to a free lunch in investing. In most times, you should do this.<BR/><BR/>You bet big when your odds are very good. The problem is<BR/>1. You never really know the odds, not like it is listed on a screen at Singapore pools.<BR/>2. Odds that are good comes rarely. And most people, even the experts, only knew that odds were damn good after the fact. E.g. property prices in 2003, River Valley Condo at $400 psf! Or maybe now, Hang Seng China PER at 10x. <BR/><BR/>Then again, what are the odds that you buy HSC now and still lose money in 5 years? 10%? or 50%? Cannot tell right? But damn shiok if you get it right.<BR/><BR/>That's the beauty of investment I think.Jayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03292158817395898619noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28086856.post-42375715222344551632008-09-09T22:25:00.000+08:002008-09-09T22:25:00.000+08:00I would like to clarify my opinion regarding the '...I would like to clarify my opinion regarding the 'bet their house and car in'...<BR/><BR/>I agree with Mr. 8%, we should bet big when we really identify a good company which is undervalued. And i do not think that there is a real need of diversification if you know what you are doing.<BR/><BR/>Simply diversify your portfolio for the sake of diversification can be known as 'Poor' diversification.<BR/><BR/>I remember Benjamin Graham once said in the last chapter of The Intelligent Investor, one of the requirement of value investor is to be <BR/>Courageous - have confidence in your own analysis'Sechaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01683854748089332401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28086856.post-50140740667053412442008-09-09T10:18:00.000+08:002008-09-09T10:18:00.000+08:00Sechai, thanks for the very apt answer. I concur y...Sechai, thanks for the very apt answer. I concur your every points.<BR/><BR/>Market uncle, I believe in diversification as well. But it is also true that you should bet big when the odds are in your favour. <BR/><BR/>The problem is with the markets, you can never know the odds right? Not like Singapore Pools, hehe.Jayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03292158817395898619noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28086856.post-27544462814978038322008-09-08T12:26:00.000+08:002008-09-08T12:26:00.000+08:00I like your ping pong & investment analogy, gr...I like your ping pong & investment analogy, great work! <BR/><BR/>On the part on trading rules, I'm a non-believer too. So long as one diversify sufficiently & rationally, (i.e. no all-eggs-in-one-basket even if a seemingly good opportunity... one might be wrong...), there is no reason to lose sleep, and definitely no reason to bet one's life just on that 'golden' opportunity.Market Unclehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13926458268187430049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28086856.post-8405302104081304982008-09-05T21:03:00.000+08:002008-09-05T21:03:00.000+08:00I try to answer your question with my humble knowl...I try to answer your question with my humble knowledge.<BR/><BR/>1st. The timing of the dividend and right issues is important, there could have an impact on cash flow if this two actions fall into different period.<BR/><BR/>2nd. There are many reasons for a company to declare dividend, the major one would be to 'Maintain' the yearly dividend level in order to provide investors some form of confidence. ( I feel that is funny)<BR/><BR/>3rd. There is cost involved in right issues,which can be expensive, there is an avoidable expense in the process. <BR/><BR/>4th. Citibank has been raising capital since subprime (one of the big lender is Temasek), but the company also declare dividends at the same time.<BR/><BR/>5th. There is a big different between bonus issue and dividend. Bonus issue there is no real cash outflow from the company.<BR/>_________________________________<BR/><BR/>Ya, psychological factor will determine whether we can become a successful investor. Be patience.<BR/><BR/>I don't think value investor will bet their house and car on stocks... haha..Sechaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01683854748089332401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28086856.post-81924610239226226482008-09-02T14:36:00.000+08:002008-09-02T14:36:00.000+08:00hi, I hv a quesiton on listed company that declare...hi, I hv a quesiton on listed company that declare divident (say $0.01) and using the divident to offset rights (1:1) subcription price (say $0.01). There is no real cash payout to the shareholders at the end. This is no difference to shareholders if the listco delcare bonus issue 1:1. Then why the listco bother to carry out the previous corporate action instead ?? is there any financail impact on the listco? how it is affect the balance sheet & it cash flow for the listco ?? thksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com