tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28086856.post6667495578004783398..comments2024-03-20T01:42:13.273+08:00Comments on Eight percent per annum: Value investing in Singapore stocks: Random Thoughts on Various Investment TopicsJayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03292158817395898619noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28086856.post-56891390323810295902009-04-18T01:18:00.000+08:002009-04-18T01:18:00.000+08:00Hi AT,
Thanks for the useful information. Yes TA ...Hi AT,<br /><br />Thanks for the useful information. Yes TA has its usefulness. I think TA can earn a positive return if implemented correctly, but probably no better than 5-8%pa.<br /><br />I have read in many literature again and again that academic studies have found that TA trading cannot make market return (5-8%) after factoring in transaction costs. So I think there should be some truth there.<br /><br />Yes we always know of people who make money off TA and claim they have some superior system. But comparing that to years of academic studies, I think we can say that these people are just lucky. We cannot count on luck to work for us as well.<br /><br />I think for TA to work, the trader's temperament and the trading system has to find a fit.Jayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03292158817395898619noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28086856.post-46377701236620852882009-02-28T23:37:00.000+08:002009-02-28T23:37:00.000+08:00Good observations. On TA, may i offer another pers...Good observations. On TA, may i offer another perspective: The market participants form a large group of individuals and teams. The picture you see on a chart is a summation of the group's collective psychology and mood. <BR/><BR/>Price and Volume essentially tell you a pretty good story. Trend lines and support levels are psychological thresholds. <BR/><BR/>If you believe human pyschology(herd behaviour) is predictable, then to some extent, charts are predictable. One obvious requirement is high volumes (eg: US markets), so no single big boy is big enough to manipulate the market.<BR/><BR/>For your consideration.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28086856.post-68958143327152229352009-02-19T15:00:00.000+08:002009-02-19T15:00:00.000+08:00Yes 11x World GDPBut it was about 4-5x World GDP b...Yes 11x World GDP<BR/><BR/>But it was about 4-5x World GDP before the crisis in the 1990s.<BR/><BR/>So the no. need not go to zero.<BR/>It will take a few yrs to clean up the system. It's not the Great Depression, hopefully.<BR/><BR/>And yes, our world works on credit.Jayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03292158817395898619noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28086856.post-54217393451382214192009-01-22T23:29:00.000+08:002009-01-22T23:29:00.000+08:00700 trillion? Woah, how did they churn out such im...700 trillion? Woah, how did they churn out such impressive numbers?<BR/>Those banks are really har...criminals man...<BR/>Taking a step back, i must say, this crisis really lasted much much longer than i imagined. From late 2007 until now, 2009. Wow. This year is a saving year.Rickyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18410941051849870875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28086856.post-59714897376828296072009-01-22T10:52:00.000+08:002009-01-22T10:52:00.000+08:00Hi Ricky, I agree with you. I think my original th...Hi Ricky, I agree with you. I think my original thesis of stocks bottoming in 2009-2010 may be in jeopardy. This recession may drag out longer and harder than what most people would like to think.<BR/><BR/>Deleveraging will take a while. It is estimated that the world (mainly US and Europe) has chalked up USD 700 trn worth of leveraged stuff, 11x world GDP. About 100 trn of that is estimated to be out of the system. The banks need to bring this down to around 4x world GDP. So, probably another 2-3 yrs or more.Jayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03292158817395898619noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28086856.post-69168292373719185632009-01-22T10:46:00.000+08:002009-01-22T10:46:00.000+08:00Hi M3I think for most pple who doesn't have the ti...Hi M3<BR/><BR/>I think for most pple who doesn't have the time or the heart to do research, analysis, reading up, the best option for them would be to buy some index funds, diversify across the globe and add funds periodically. Over the long run, it should make money (except for one or two times in history, this method lost money, like in 2008).<BR/><BR/>For most pple reading this blog, yes, we studied the company, we are confident of its prospect, we shouldn't be spending time buying another co. on some takeover rumour or other newsflow.<BR/><BR/>But actually, the first index fund buying works for us too. My personal philosophy would be to allocate say 60%-70% to index funds and fixed income instruments (pref shrs, govt bonds etc) and the 30-40% to stock picking.Jayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03292158817395898619noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28086856.post-4588632479839899592009-01-17T11:44:00.000+08:002009-01-17T11:44:00.000+08:00Fire sale has been going on for quite a while and ...Fire sale has been going on for quite a while and is likely to continue for quite some time. Best time to gradually dip in is probably during a long period of consolidation in the stock price.<BR/> <BR/>Personally, i don't see a V-shaped recovery. Maybe a U-shaped or L-shaped recession.<BR/><BR/>For value-investors, there's no hurry.Rickyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18410941051849870875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28086856.post-86249745650334359202009-01-16T14:11:00.000+08:002009-01-16T14:11:00.000+08:00agree with yr views on diversification but many ta...agree with yr views on diversification but many take it as the gospel truth, with financial adviser drumming the diversifiation theme, and they end up buying funds and unit trusts that containts far too many stock that they dont even know. If u look at Buffett, in a way he diversifies too (he probably has more than 50 companies held thru equity). Its good to diversify only if u know what u r buying. If u buy a 100 stock that u dont know, then u r better off holding on to 10 that u know :)M3https://www.blogger.com/profile/14662536901252494967noreply@blogger.com