Capital Account by Marathon Asset Management published in 2004 gave a good analysis of how global capital moved and why alpha or value add could be generated if we invest well in the cycle.
The Capital Cycle
The capital cycle move along with investors' interests which create competition at the peaks, driving down returns. Essentially a more academic way of saying, "be fearful when others are greedy". It doesn't do justice to the book by over-summarizing it here.
Do read the book for some good investing stories!